Life Prediction Techniques and Applications Based on Reliability Simulation Method

CHEN Ping; DU Shaohua; WANG Xu; CHENG Xuhong

doi:10.13890/j.issn.1000-128x.2017.02.003

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Life Prediction Techniques and Applications Based on Reliability Simulation Method

更新时间：2021-12-13

- Life Prediction Techniques and Applications Based on Reliability Simulation Method
- Electric Drive for Locomotives Issue 2, Pages: 9-13(2017)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 青岛地铁集团有限公司,山东,青岛,266000
  2. 中车株洲所电气技术与材料工程研究院,湖南,株洲,412001
  3. 动车组和机车牵引与控制国家重点实验室,湖南,株洲,412001
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13890/j.issn.1000-128x.2017.02.003
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CHEN Ping, DU Shaohua, WANG Xu, et al. Life Prediction Techniques and Applications Based on Reliability Simulation Method. [J]. Electric Drive for Locomotives (2):9-13(2017)
DOI：

CHEN Ping, DU Shaohua, WANG Xu, et al. Life Prediction Techniques and Applications Based on Reliability Simulation Method. [J]. Electric Drive for Locomotives (2):9-13(2017) DOI： 10.13890/j.issn.1000-128x.2017.02.003.

摘要

为实现产品寿命的快速评估，探讨了基于可靠性仿真的寿命预测方法的适用性及有效性情况。以某车载处理器模块为研究对象，找到了热、振动设计的薄弱环节，预测了平均寿命指标为4.84 年。该方法相对于可靠性预计的寿命评估技术，不依赖于器件手册的故障率数据，预测精度较高，相对于加速寿命试验的寿命评估技术，预测周期及试验成本可以极大缩减，具有广阔的应用前景。

Abstract

In order to conduct a rapid assessment of product life, the effectiveness and applicability for life prediction based on reliability simulation method was discussed. Taking a vehicle-carried processor as research object, the weaknesses of thermal design and vibration design were exposed and the average life of 4.84 years was predicted. Compared to the reliability prediction method, this method doesn’t rely on the failure rate in the handbook and has high precision. Compared to the accelerated life test method, this method has lower cost and test time, which has a bright application prospect.

关键词

可靠性仿真正向可靠性设计故障物理寿命预测

Keywords

reliability simulationforward reliability designphysics of failurelife prediction

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